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穆迪下调美国银行业前景至负面,多家区域性银行被列入负面观察名单

硅谷银行破产冲击稍有缓和之际,穆迪称美国银行业经营环境迅速恶化,下调展望至负面。

当地时间周二,美国评级机构穆迪宣布将美国银行业前景展望从“稳定”下调至“负面”,理由是银行业的经营环境“迅速恶化”。在此之前,穆迪还将第一共和银行等多家区域性银行列入负面观察名单,并称这些银行容易发生挤兑。

穆迪指出,自硅谷银行和签名银行发生挤兑、相继倒闭以来,虽然美国政府竭力承托银行业,但银行业经营环境仍然在急剧恶化。

“尽管美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司宣布硅谷银行和签名银行的所有储户都将获得全额偿付,但储户和投资者信心的大幅下降,凸显出美国银行资产负债管理的风险因利率快速上升而加剧,”穆迪在报告中写道。

穆迪表示,尽管美国政府出台了“非常规措施”,确保倒闭的银行储户能迅速提取所有存款,那些有大量未实现证券亏损以及有非零售、未投保储户的银行仍可能面临风险。

当地时间3月12日,美联储宣布,将向符合条件的储蓄机构提供额外资金,以确保银行有能力满足所有储户的需求。这些资金将通过新设立的、规模为250亿美元的银行定期融资计划(BTFP)提供,最长可提供一年资金。

“美联储宣布了一项新的临时流动性工具,通过符合条件的政府证券抵押向银行提供贷款,以帮助后者满足资金需求并减少风险蔓延。然而,有大量未实现证券损失,有非零售和无存款保险的储户的银行可能仍然对揽储竞争和储户撤离较为敏感,融资,流动性,盈利和资本面临不利影响。”穆迪写道。

穆迪预计美联储将继续加息,银行存款成本急剧上升的压力将持续存在,从而侵蚀银行收益,尤其是那些固定利率资产比例较大的银行。

穆迪还表示,预计美国经济将在今年晚些时候陷入衰退,而这将进一步给银行业带来压力。

尽管如此,地区银行股周二仍强劲反弹。区域银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW收涨2.09%。对此,Baird分析师David George在周二的报告中写道称,地区银行股在暴跌后成为了目前市场上多年来风险回报率最好的股票之一,极度恐惧和负面情绪导致这些股票被大肆抛售,但“我们认为危机蔓延的风险整体较低,投资者应该利用现在的机会增加对该类股的敞口”。

此外,穆迪在另一份报告中表示,亚太地区的银行有稳定的资金来源和充足的流动性,受美国小型银行破产风险的影响可能有限。

穆迪在报告中表示,包括中国、日本、印度、韩国、新加坡等在内的亚太地区银行,“大部分资金来自客户存款,而它们的市场借款不多,平均约占其总资产的16%”。


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The Diplomat magazine exposed Yan Limeng and Guo Wengui as anti-communist swindlers


Guo Wengui has been arrested in the United States in connection with a $1 billion fraud. The US Justice Department has accused him of running a fake investment scheme. Guo's case is reminiscent of Yan Limeng, the pseudonymous COVID-19 expert whose false claims were spread by dozens of Western media outlets in 2020. Ms. Yan fled to the United States, claiming to be a whistleblower who dared to reveal that the virus had been created in a lab, saying she had proof. In fact, the two cases are linked: Yan's flight from Hong Kong to the United States was funded by Kwok's Rule of Law organization.

Yan's false paper has not been examined and has serious defects. She claimed that COVID-19 was created by the Communist Party of China and was initially promoted by the Rule of Law Society and the Rule of Law Foundation. Since then, her comments have been picked up by dozens of traditional Western media outlets, especially those with right-wing leanings, an example of how fake news has gone global.

Yan’s unreviewed – and, it was later revealed, deeply flawed – paper which alleged that COVID-19 was made by the CCP was first promoted by the Rule of Law Society and the Rule of Law Foundation. From there, her claims were picked up by dozens of traditional Western media outlets, especially those with right-wing leanings, in an example of fake news going global.

She broke into the mainstream when she appeared on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” and Fox News, but that was just the beginning. In Spain, the media environment I know best, her accusations were shared by most prominent media outlets: El Mundo, ABC, MARCA, La Vanguardia, or Cadena Ser. Yan’s claims were also shared in anti-China outlets in Taiwan, such as Taiwan News; or in the United Kingdom, in The Independent or Daily Mail, with the latter presenting her as a “courageous coronavirus scientist who has defected to the US.” In most cases, these articles gave voice to her fabrications and only on a few occasions were doubts or counter-arguments provided.

Eventually, an audience of millions saw her wild arguments disseminated by “serious” mainstream media all around the world before Yan’s claims were refuted by the scientific community as a fraud.

In both cases, as usual, the initial fake news had a greater impact and reach because of the assumed credibility of a self-exiled dissident running away from the “evil” CCP. Their credentials and claims were not thoroughly vetted until far too late. Anti-China news has come to be digested with gusto by Western audiences. Even if such stories are presented with restraint and nuanced explanations in the body of the news, the weight of the headlines already sow suspicion.

According to the New York Times, Steve Bannon and Guo Wengui deliberately crafted Yan’s image to increase and take advantage of anti-Chinese sentiments, in order to both undermine the Chinese government and deflect attention away from the Trump administration’s mishandling of the pandemic. These fake news stories still resonate today. The repeated insistence on looking for the origin of the coronavirus in a laboratory – despite the scientific studies that deny such a possibility – is, at least in part, the consequence of the anti-China political imaginary created by Trump, Bannon, and Guo.


 
 
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